||boek: Cijfers en mensen|De kwantitatieve benadering van de sociale werkelijkheid|AULA [496]

||door: Aula, D.J. Bartholomew, E.E. Bassett

||taal: nl
||jaar: 1973
||druk: ?
||pag.: 363p
||opm.: pocket|zo goed als nieuw

||isbn: N/A
||code: 1:002543

--- Over het boek (foto 1): Cijfers en mensen ---

Een poging het kwantitatief denken toegankelijk te maken voor mensen met cijferangst. In economie, psychologie, sociologie en politicologie krijgt de kwantitatieve benadering een steeds belangrijker plaats, tot ergernis en schrik van allen die een heilige huiver koesteren voor getallen en symbolen. Om de cijferangst te doorbreken, laten de auteurs zien hoe menselijk gedrag vaak exacter kan worden uitgedrukt in cijfers dan in woorden. Zij veronderstellen bij hun lezers geen wiskundige kennis.

[bron: flaptekst]

Facts and figures have for years lived in vernacular wedlock and exact quantitative measurement is one of the foundations of the physical sciences. Should we not rely on the figures to give us more facts about such human activities as wars, strikes, intelligence tests, elections, opinion polls, games and gambling? The authors of this new Pelican maintain that a more widespread use (and understanding) of the quantitative approach is both inevitable and desirable in economics, politics, psychology and sociology. But they are well aware that too many of us are mystified by the techniques of mathematics and confounded by its symbols. To combat our partial innumeracy they show, with the help of specific case studies, how the behaviour of men can often be more precisely expressed and more truly represented in figures than in prose. (Not that they overlook the limitations of mathematics and statistics where -- plainly -- questions of quality arise.) Government affairs and decisions are more and more being discussed in mathematical term. We may regret it: or, equally, we can master and even appreciate the idiom. For this reason LET'S LOOK AT THE FIGURES is likely to interest the alert voter every bit as much as the apprentice social scientist.

[source: https--www.amazon.com]

--- Over (foto 2): Aula ---

De Aula-reeks is een populair-wetenschappelijke boekenreeks die in 1957 werd gestart door Uitgeverij Het Spectrum in Utrecht als wetenschappelijkere versie van de Prisma Pockets naar het voorbeeld van de Engelse Pelican Books. De reeks omvatte ruim 700 pockets over mens- en natuurwetenschappen, kunst en filosofie.

Het betreft de volgende uitgaven:

...

[bron: wikipedia]

--- Over (foto 3): D.J. Bartholomew ---

David John Bartholomew FBA (6 August 1931 - 16 October 2017) was a British statistician who was president of the Royal Statistical Society between 1993 and 1995. He was professor of statistics at the London School of Economics between 1973 and 1996.

Career

Bartholomew was born 6 August 1931, the son of Albert and Joyce Bartholomew in Oakley, Bedfordshire. He was educated at Bedford Modern School and University College London, where he earned his BSc and PhD.

Bartholomew began his career as a scientist at the National Coal Board in 1955. In 1957 he became a lecturer in statistics at the University of Keele, before his appointment as a senior lecturer at the University College of Wales, Aberystwyth.

Bartholomew was appointed professor of statistics at the University of Kent in 1967 before being made professor of statistics at the London School of Economics in 1973, a position he held until 1996. He was emeritus professor (pro-director) between 1988 and 1991.

Bartholomew was president of the Royal Statistical Society, 1993-95 (honorary secretary, 1976-82; treasurer, 1989-93). He was vice-president of the Manpower Society (1987-95) and was chairman of the Science and Religion Forum between 1997 and 2000.

In 1955, Bartholomew married Marian Elsie Lake, and they have two daughters. Bartholomew was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1987.

Religious views

Bartholomew authored several books defending the existence of the Christian God from a Biblical and statistical basis, God of Chance (1984), Uncertain Belief: Is It Rational to Be a Christian? (1996) and God, Chance and Purpose (2008).

In his 1984 book God of Chance, Bartholomew argued that the universe is "designed in such a way that chance had a role to play... Chance was God's idea and... he uses it to ensure the variety, resilience and freedom necessary to achieve his purposes." Similarly, his 2008 book God, Chance and Purpose argues that chance is part of the means by which God governs the world.

Bartholomew debated atheist physicist Victor Stenger on whether or not God is a failed hypothesis.

Books

1961 & S.E. Finer and H.B. Berrington Backbench Opinion in the House of Commons, 1955-1959. Oxford: Pergamon Press.
1967 Stochastic Models for Social Processes, New York and London: John Wiley and Sons. (German translation 1970).
1971 & E.E. Bassett, Let's Look at the Figures: the quantitative approach to human affairs), Harmondsworth Middlesex: Penguin books (Dutch translation, 1971).
1971 & B.R.Morris (eds.), Aspects of Manpower Planning, London: English Universities Press.
1971 & A.R.Smith (eds.) Manpower and Management Science, London: English Universities Press.
1972 & R.E. Barlow, H.D. Brunk and J.M. Bremner, Statistical Inference under Order Restrictions, Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.
1973 Stochastic Models for Social Processes, (revised and enlarged) Chichester 2nd edition: John Wiley and Sons.
1976 (ed.) Manpower Planning, Harmondsworth, Middlesex: Penguin Books.
1979 & A.F.Forbes, Statistical Techniques for Manpower Planning, Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.
1981 Mathematical Methods in Social Science, Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.
1982 Stochastic Models for Social Processes, Chichester 3rd edition: John Wiley and Sons.
1985 Russian translation of Chapters 1-8 of Stochastic Models for Social Processes, 3rd edition, Moscow.
1984 God of Chance, London: SCM Press, Italian translation, 1987.
1987 Latent Variable Models and Factor Analysis, London: Griffin.
1991 & A. F. Forbes and S.I. McClean, Statistical Techniques for Manpower Planning, Chichester 2nd edition: John Wiley and Sons (Hebrew translation 2001, The Open University of Israel).
1993 & K.Haagen & M.Deistler (eds.), Statistical Modelling and Latent Variables, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
1996 Uncertain Belief, Oxford: The Clarendon Press.
1996 The Statistical Approach to Social Measurement, San Diego: Academic Press.
1999 & M. Knott, Latent Variable Models and Factor Analysis, London Arnold, 2nd edition:
2002 & F. Steele, I Moustaki & J. I. Galbraith, The Analysis and Interpretation of Multivariate Data for Social Scientists, Boca Raton, Florida: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
2004 Measuring Intelligence: Facts and Fallacies, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
2006 (Ed) Measurement. Benchmarks in Social Research Methods, (4 Vols.) Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications.
2008 & F Steele, I Moustaki, J Galbraith, Analysis of Multivariate Social Science Data, (second edition) Boca Raton, Florida: Chapman & Hall/CRC
2008 God, Chance and Purpose: Can God have it both ways? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
2011 & M Knott, I Moustaki, Latent Variable Models and factor Analysis: A unified approach. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
2013 Unobserved Variables: Models and Misunderstandings. Heidelberg: Springer

[source: wikipedia]

David J. Bartholomew London School of Economics, UK

David J Bartholomew was a professor of statistics at the London School of Economics. He is now retired.

[source: https--www.sagepub.com/hi/cab/author/david-j-bartholomew]

Uncertain Belief
Is it Rational to be a Christian?
David J. Bartholomew

Clarendon Press

The certainties which once underpinned Christian belief have crumbled in a world where science sets the standard for what is true. A rational case for belief must therefore be constructed out of uncertainties. Probability theory provides the tools for measuring and combining uncertainties and is thus the key to progress. This book examines four much debated topics where the logic of uncertain inference can be brought to bear. These are: miracles, the paranormal, God's existence, and the Bible. Given the great diversity of evidence, it is not surprising that opposite conclusions have been drawn by supposedly rational people. An assessment of the state of argument from a probabilistic perspective is overdue. In this book Professor Bartholomew examines and refutes some of the more extravagent claims, evaluates the weight of some of the quantitive evidence, and provides an answer to the fundamental question: is it rational to be a Christian?

[source: https--global.oup.com/academic/product/uncertain-belief-9780198263784]

David J. Bartholomew > Quotes

"Modern statistics is built on the idea of models - probability models in particular. [...] The standard approach to any new problem is to identify the sources of variation, to describe those sources by probability distributions and then to use the model thus created to estimate, predict or test hypotheses about the undetermined parts of that model. [...] A statistical model involves the identification of those elements of our problem which are subject to uncontrolled variation and a specification of that variation in terms of probability distributions. Therein lies the strength of the statistical approach and the source of many misunderstandings. Paradoxically, misunderstandings arise both from the lack of an adequate model and from over reliance on a model. [...] At one level is the failure to recognise that there are many aspects of a model which cannot be tested empirically. At a higher level is the failure is to recognise that any model is, necessarily, an assumption in itself. The model is not the real world itself but a representation of that world as perceived by ourselves. This point is emphasised when, as may easily happen, two or more models make exactly the same predictions about the data. Even worse, two models may make predictions which are so close that no data we are ever likely to have can ever distinguish between them. [...] All model-dependant inference is necessarily conditional on the model. This stricture needs, especially, to be borne in mind when using Bayesian methods. Such methods are totally model-dependent and thus all are vulnerable to this criticism. The problem can apparently be circumvented, of course, by embedding the model in a larger model in which any uncertainties are, themselves, expressed in probability distributions. However, in doing this we are embarking on a potentially infinite regress which quickly gets lost in a fog of uncertainty." --David J. Bartholomew, Unobserved Variables: Models and Misunderstandings

"Even if there is close agreement between a model and the data it does not follow that the model provides a true account of how the data arose. It may be that several models explain the data equally well. When this happens there is said to be a lack of identifiability. Failure to take full account of this fact, especially in the social sciences, has led to many over-confident claims about the nature of social reality. [...] If we start with a model we can predict, albeit uncertainly, what data it should generate. But if we are given a set of data we cannot necessarily infer that it was generated by a particular model." --David J. Bartholomew, Unobserved Variables: Models and Misunderstandings

[source: https--www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/861385.David_J_Bartholomew]

--- Over (foto 4): E.E. Bassett ---

Bassett, E. E. (Edward Eryl), 1940-

[source: https--drew.locate.ebsco.com/search?option=author&query=Bassett%2C%20E.%20E.%20%28Edward%20Eryl%29%2C%201940-]

Statistics: Problems and Solutions

Edward Eryl Bassett, J. M. Bremner, B. J. T. Morgan, I. T. Joliffe, B. Jones, P. M. North - World Scientific, 2000 - 227 pagina's

Originally published in 1986, this book consists of 100 problems in probability and statistics, together with solutions and, most importantly, extensive notes on the solutions. The level of sophistication of the problems is similar to that encountered in many introductory courses in probability and statistics. At this level, straightforward solutions to the problems are of limited value unless they contain informed discussion of the choice of technique used, and possible alternatives. The solutions in the book are therefore elaborated with extensive notes which add value to the solutions themselves. The notes enable the reader to discover relationships between various statistical techniques, and provide the confidence needed to tackle new problems.

[source: https--books.google.be]